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What happened: the changes that hit in December
In the first half of December 2025, ad networks recorded a sharp shift in traffic composition. The main driver was an update to privacy policies in a number of CIS jurisdictions, which made targeting harder for media-buying teams. Experts note a move from quantity to quality as the cost of traffic (CPM) climbs.
- Google Spam Update: The December 5 algorithm update affected up to 45% of iGaming review sites.
- Rising CPA rates: In Tier-1 GEOs, the average cost per target action (CPA) rose 15%, hitting $450 per lead.
- AI integration: More than 60% of top teams have adopted neural networks to generate dynamic creatives in real time.
| Traffic source | ROI change (%) | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| PPC (Google Ads) | -12% | Tighter moderation |
| Social (FB/TT) | +18% | New traffic-running schemes via PWA |
| SEO | -22% | Algorithm update |
Expert reactions: where the market leaders stand
Representatives of the largest affiliate networks point to the need to diversify the offer portfolio. According to a statement from LeadNetwork’s CTO, Alexey Volkov, the market is entering a phase of “mature marketing” in which only teams with their own in-house tech will survive. Webmasters are voicing concern over payout delays caused by new transaction-verification protocols.
“We’re seeing that traditional traffic arbitrage as we know it is dying. Today, success in iGaming comes down to the ability to work with player LTV and retention tools on the partner’s side,” says Dmitry Sokolov, CEO of AffiliatePro.
Context and background: why this matters to the pros
The events of December 2025 are a logical continuation of the tighter gambling-control policy that began earlier in the year. Back in March 2025, Apple restricted web push notifications, which dealt a blow to classic campaign bundles. In response, the market adapted by leaning on PWAs (Progressive Web Apps), which have become the dominant tool this month.
Historically, December is the month of peak load and the highest traffic volumes. This year, however, high volatility in ad auctions led many teams to hold their budgets back until January. That created a unique precedent of reduced competition in certain geo niches, which seasoned media buyers were quick to exploit.
Fallout and forecasts: what’s in store for the market in 2026?
Analysts forecast further market consolidation. Smaller teams will be forced to merge into holding companies to cut operating costs. By February 2026, the share of traffic from messengers (Telegram/WhatsApp) in the iGaming vertical is expected to rise to 35% of total volume.
- RegTech adoption: Affiliate programs will start embedding automatic age-verification modules into ad links.
- Shift to RevShare: With CPA networks proving unstable, experts forecast a return to the revenue share (RevShare) model as a more sustainable option.
- New GEOs: Experts’ attention will shift to Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile) on the back of online-casino legalization.
Published: 2025-12-17T09:00:00Z. Data is based on reports from Global Gambling Report and ad networks’ internal analytics.
